NOAA has predicted an active North Atlantic hurricane season ten days before its official start. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov 30. The current outlook predicts a 60% chance of an "above-normal" hurricane season, with between 13 to 19 named storms. Six to 10 of those are expected to strengthen into hurricanes, and three to five could become major hurricanes, according to the forecasters. They estimated a 30% chance of a "near-normal" season and a 10% chance of a "below-normal" season. They held their news conference in New Orleans to commemorate the 20 year anniversary of Katrina's landfall there.
Continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes, all tend to favour tropical storm formation. And we are getting very close ... the two-year running average for the global surface temperature anomaly is now 1.599°C above the 1850-1900 baseline. Sea ice is tracking at the same level as last year.
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