Climate reports are in -- 2022 was fifth warmest on record

Source: Copernicus/ECMWF

European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service reported the eight warmest years on record have now occurred since 2014, with 2022 being the fifth-hottest. NASA and NOAA also issued analyses of global temperatures for 2022, and their findings were similar. NASA’s analysis ranked 2022 as tied with 2015 for the fifth warmest, while NOAA had last year as the sixth warmest.

Copernicus found that the 10-year average temperature for the period 2013-2022 is 1.14°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. NASA determined that the world is now 1.2°C (2.1°F) warmer overall than it was in the second half of the 19th century.  

Copernicus scientists reported that Europe had its hottest summer ever in 2022. Separate research has shown that heat waves in Europe are increasing in frequency and intensity at a faster rate than almost anywhere else, fueled not only by warming but also by shifts in atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

Eastern and Central China, Pakistan and India all experienced lengthy and extreme heat waves in 2022, and monsoon floods in Pakistan. The heat and accompanying dryness also contributed to drought and extensive wildfires in the Western United States and now to flooding with persistent atmospheric rivers. Extreme weather events are likely to continue until humanity achieves net zero emissions. 

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979. 

While 2022 was a La Niña year, an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, reversion to El Niño will bring stronger warming. The persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 was not the warmest year on record, but is “only” the fifth or sixth warmest. "The rare event now would be to see a really cold year," said Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus service. 

The World Meteorological Organization reported that the atmospheric concentration of all the main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – had reached record highs. The heating of the oceans, and the impact on extreme weather, will increase until net zero emissions are achieved. 

A weird anomaly is that the Northern Hemisphere is warmer than the Southern and is warming more quickly.  It is considered that the northern hemisphere has more land mass while the southern hemisphere has more ocean and therefore varies in the rate of warming. The Northern Hemisphere is warmer than the Southern Hemisphere in part because of northward cross-equatorial ocean heat transport. Of course, if the Gulf Stream is indeed slowing down, then the rate of heat exchange should also slow down. 

 Global average temperature compared with mid-20th century
Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

 

Global annual mean temperature difference from pre-industrial conditions (1850–1900) for six global temperature data sets (1850–2022, 2022 based on an average to September). Source: WMO

Globally averaged mole fraction (measure of atmospheric concentration), from 1984 to 2021, of CO2 in parts per million (left), CH4 in parts per billion (centre), and N2O in parts per billion (right).

Climate reports

Today I came across an article in Euronews about the changes European agriculture is facing due to climate change, and it sounds serious. Now the article was a sponsored feature by Copernicus which is getting funding from the ECMWF and the EU. Copernicus is selling their climate data services through this article, but it did have some very interesting information relevant to our project. One of the crops covered is grapevines naturally, which are under increasing stress in Spain and Portugal.

They point out that a study recently indicated that vineyards need to adapt urgently to protect the quality of their harvests but the current policy for Protected Designation of Origin regions is standing in the way. Interesting. They also note experimentation with different varieties and altered methods.

One of Portugal’s main port wine producers is testing a climate application meant to improve the vineyard’s resilience to climate change. The Vineyards Integrated Smart Climate Application (VISCA), an EU initiative, combines climate, agriculture and farmer-specific information to adapt crop planning to climate change. Crop forcing, one technique used, involves moving the ripening time from hot summer months to later, cooler months, by extra pruning, halting the vine’s natural cycle and forcing it to start it later.

The VISCA project which has Horizon 2020 funding and ends in December of this year, has developed a tool for monitoring and advising farmers about mitigating the effects of climate change. All very interesting. We need to follow up with VISCA to see if any follow-up research is planned.

Meanwhile, a preliminary climate report for 2019 in Ireland has shown that our hunch seems to be in line with reality.

When fully analysed, 2019 will likely be the second or third warmest year on record. Average temperatures for the five-year (2015-2019) and ten-year (2010-2019) periods are almost certain to be the highest on record. Since the 1980s each decade has been warmer than the previous one. This trend is expected to continue.

I'm not certain any more that I want to be right. If climate change is somehow an impetus for diseases like COVID-19 to break out in prolonged pandemics, then making wine won't make enough of a difference. 

Westernmost vineyard in Europe

Casal Santa Maria vineyards in Portugal

We wanted to claim the title of the westernmost vineyard in Europe given that we're the only vineyard we know of on the west coast of Ireland or Scotland. But we were recently reminded that the Azores are part of Europe and so are the Madeiras. There goes that claim. Their vino verde and fortified port and Madeira wines qualify for that claim. Oh well. We'll find another accolade to usurp. Perhaps Westernmost Vineyard in Continental Europe?

World wine production plummets

The Organisation Internationale de la Vigne et du Vin (OIV) in its press release called it "A historically low 2017 production especially in Western Europe due to unfavourable climate conditions."  GLOBAL ECONOMIC VITIVINICULTURE DATA estimated 2017 World wine production  at 246.7 mhl, a fall of 8.2% compared with 2016.

Impact of Climate Change on Viticulture Globally

Numerous articles have been published about the effects of climate change on the wine industry and mitigation strategies are already being implemented. It is always interesting to me that man feels compelled to control his environment. That usually lasts long into the period after realization has set in that controlling it is in fact impossible and moving on is a more sensible solution. But of course, moving on from an estate that's been in the family for centuries is not a really feasible proposition.

The higher likelihood is that someone recognizes the potential and establishes competition elsewhere which eventually becomes more successful. At that point, the original estate begins to need more income and finds new crops to plant that are more suitable to the new environment. At least, that's how I imagine things to work and have read similar stories.

Michelle Renee Mozell and Liz Thach write in their recent review article, "Though wine is not essential to human survival, wine is an important product of human ingenuity." They tackle the global literature  about the impact of climate change on the global wine industry. It's that human fascination with wine that makes wine production a sacrosanct activity and may even be the impetus that gets governments on board the climate change mitigation train.

The entire range of grape growing climate zones is about 10°C globally; for some grapes, such as Pinot noir, the range is an even narrower 2C°. Many progressive wine growers have already taken steps to mitigate the effects of climate change, including cooling the grapes by misting and changes irrigation practices. But in the long run, those types of practices will be affected by availability of fresh water as we are seeing in California. Some are changing the manner in which they process the grapes into wine and others are planting new more tolerant varieties or buying up land in more favourable climates. It is surprising how aware these growers are of the changing climate compared with the naysayers in the public domain. But of course, farmers and fishermen are always among the first to notice the changes, it's just that they are infrequently asked by the scientists to share their observations. Perhaps now they will be, especially as funding for science drops out.

But there are three areas that still need research to determine optimal strategies:

• studies to identify how plants, microrganisms and pathogens will respond to simultaneous rise in temperature and CO2 while rainfall decreases in traditional wine growing regions
• means by which to reduce emission of the greenhouse gasses, nitrous oxide and methane, by vineyards during the production of wines
• resource management throughout the production chain

The authors conclude, "wine's future is tied inextricably to a vital Earth and a vital population. Grape growers and winemakers must understand both the dire condition of the planet and the small, but significant, role their industry holds in the human matrix. They must seek, therefore, in a responsible manner, their proper and effective role in the adaptation to and the mitigation of global climate change. The future of the wine industry is dependent upon an effective course of action. The Romans declared, 'Vino veritas,' or 'in wine there is truth'. The simple, yet tragic, truth is the Earth's climate is changing. How the wine industry responds will determine if the industry is to survive."



www.sciencedirect.com
Wine Economics and Policy 3 (2014) 81–89
The impact of climate change on the global wine industry:
Challenges & solutions
Michelle Renée Mozell, Liz Thach
Sonoma State University Wine Business Institute, 1801 E. Cotati Blvd, Rohnert Park, CA 94928, USA
 http://ac.els-cdn.com/S2212977414000222/1-s2.0-S2212977414000222-main.pdf?_tid=6c72a3ec-57d4-11e5-9028-00000aacb361&acdnat=1441900736_d33fc9b7e34238d304eb94e45364105f

The Effect of Climate Change on Viticulture in Europe

I thought that this was a breakthrough idea I had, growing grapes in Ireland in anticipation of climate change that is. Then I started doing some research.

It turns out there is a major effort underway in Europe to identify climate change mitigation strategies. Called rather cumbersomely, ClimVineSafe, the cross-european border participants are looking for short-term solutions that would keep the viniculture industry safe. The Portuguese are at the forefront of the movement.

A major review paper has been published to analyze everything that is known about the subject. It is very detailed. A new study is being conducted to see which strategies might be most effective. This is a very interesting development. Although I wasn't the first to think of this, clearly I was on the right track and our strategy of growing grapes in Ireland might just not be so hair brained* after all.

Review
An overview of climate change impacts on European viticulture
H. Fraga*, A. C. Malheiro, J. Moutinho-Pereira and J. A. Santos
Food and Energy Security Volume 1, Issue 2, pages 94–110, November 2012
Article first published online: 17 FEB 2013 DOI: 10.1002/fes3.14
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/fes3.14/full

I am going to study this and report back what I learn. Stay tuned.



* highly scientific term