A transition from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
El Niño is likely to form during the May-July season and persist into the winter. The combination of a forecasted third westerly wind event in mid-late May, and high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, means that a potentially significant El Niño is on the horizon. What that means for the earth is potentially rapidly escalating air and ocean temperatures, less hurricane activity in the Atlantic but more cyclone activity in the Pacific. Essentially, it's a bad omen for climate change for the next few years which may push us over the tipping point.
While at least a weak El Niño is likely, the range of possibilities at the end of the year (November-January) includes an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño to a ~55% chance of a strong El Niño. It is still possible the tropical atmosphere does not couple with the ocean, and El Niño fails to materialize (5-10% chance). In summary, a transition from ENSO-neutral is expected in the next couple of months, with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions).
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