The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has raised its probability of a Super El Niño forming by November 2026 to 100 per cent. In March, that number was 22 per cent. By late April, it was 80. Now it is certain.
A massive Kelvin wave, a pulse of anomalously warm water that has been building in the western Pacific, is now pushing eastward toward the surface. Subsurface temperatures in the top 300 metres of the tropical Pacific are already tracking warmer than the equivalent development stage of both the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super events. Central Pacific temperatures are projected to exceed 3°C above average by November, a level of oceanic heat not recorded since 1877.
What makes this worse is the baseline. Every previous Super El Niño formed on a cooler planet. This one is starting from a world already 1.2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Any additional Pacific heat stacks on top. NOAA now gives an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July, strengthening through autumn, and persisting through winter 2026-27.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has warned that the El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean, and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare “Super” El Niño — by autumn or winter.
The consequences span droughts, collapsed monsoons, amplified wildfire seasons and a likely breach of the 1.5°C warming guardrail. It may also mean a harsher winter for the British Isles. In 1877, some 50 million people died.
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| Another pruning session at Turlough House with Andrew |
We had another session with Andrew Watson, pruning the vine at Turlough House. Cut tendril tips, and the vine two to three leaves past the fruiting buds. Pull out the growth showing at the base of leaves, and remove any non-fruiting sections you don't want to keep for next year. We spent about 1.5 hours at it. Will soon have to start in the vineyard.
I am having difficulty manoeuvring in the steep area of the garden, so Craig and Catherine Anne have helped us transform that section with a new path. It curves through the middle section and lets us access just about everything for weeding and just plain enjoying. Ghostie loves playing there.
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| New garden path going in |
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| Next, ground cover and gravel |
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| Ghost is a big help |
It's been a cold and dry month of May so far. We've only had 12.8 mm of rain and the mean temperature for the first 12 days is 10.8 °C -- compared with 99.2mm and 12.0 °C LTA for the month. I do not think we are going to get there. Yet, the stuff outside is doing well. The wisteria is blooming, the veg are growing, and the orchard cherries are doing well, finally. We've had the most spectacular display of lilacs ever. But I think we killed the raspberries with donkey poo. The donkeys are continuing to get more and more friendly and they love their stable. I think they come back to sleep there every night.
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| Wisteria |
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| Lilac |
On the other hand, the polytunnel has been conducive to lush growth. The peas are 8 feet tall, the Rockit tree has tiny apples, and the grapes are forming tiny grapelets. Alex transplanted the strawberries, and they are thriving in their new raised box beds from Vevor. One grapevine cutting that hasn't even produced leaves yet is fruiting. Weird. I harvested a lemon and am going to have lots more lemons and oranges this year, but no peaches or nectarines. The latter have not flowered this year. Bummer.
Just after I recovered, though not completely, from carpal tunnel surgery, Alex was scheduled for removal of a basal cell on his nose. I still have loss of sensation in 3.5 fingers and my palm and he can't lift anything for a week. So garden work must wait. Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow.
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| Westport Quay |
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| Grapes forming |
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| Grapes coming along |
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| Apples |
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| Fruit at the base of a stick |
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| Donkeys gettng treats |
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| Bruce, my love! |
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| Alex with nose taped up after surgery |
Despite wine consumption being down, wine tourism appears to be doing well. Aside from the classic winemaking regions, organic and biodynamic vineyards are garnering attention. Waitrose reported an increase of 47% in sales of organic wine in the UK last year, and the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) predicts that global sales of organic wine will hit 1 billion bottles in 2022. The global organic wine market is experiencing rapid growth, valued at approximately $13.34 billion in 2025 and projected to reach over $30 billion by 2033–2034. Driven by health consciousness, sustainability concerns, and premiumization -- using premium, science-led formulations to create high-performance products that command higher prices, this sector thrives even as overall wine consumption declines. Europe dominates production and consumption, with France, Italy, and Spain leading. Canada has recently become known for this quality.
It would be interesting if Ireland became known as a sustainable organic/biodynamic winemaking region -- wine cultivated and produced with nature in mind. Farm-to-fork thinking extended to grape-to-glass. As our soils are irgin territory for vine growing and have not been contaminated for the most part, it would be possible to build this notion from the ground up.
Certified organic wine doesn’t use genetically modified organisms or contain sulphites (conventional wines use GMO yeast). Producers use 100 per cent organic grapes and can’t use toxic pesticides, herbicides or synthetic fertilisers. They fertilise with compost, compost teas, green manure and cover crops. They rely on mechanical weeding, mowing around the vines, mulching and companion planting. Some let miniature sheep or alpacas graze in the vineyard to "mow the grass". To avoid using insecticides to control cutworms, they let chickens graze under the vines or handpick worms off leaves.
Biodynamic producers cultivate grapes without pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, synthetic fertilisers, or growth stimulants, and often meet or exceed standards and regulations for organic-certified farming. They follow a calendar that emphasises nature’s interconnections via the elements of earth, fire, air and water. They harvest grapes and drink wine on “fruit days,” water the plants on “leaf days,” prune the vines on “root days”, and leave the vineyard alone on “flower days.”
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| Biodynamic winemakers follow a calendar of activity on specific root, flower, fruit and leaf days, related to the phases of the moon. |
Producers who don’t add anything to grape growing or winemaking processes are considered natural winemakers. Because they don’t filter, most of their wines are cloudy or retain sediments. The wines are often effervescent and may take on unique flavours.
Not all organic wine is natural, but all natural wines are made with organically or biodynamically grown grapes (typically hand-harvested).
Meanwhile, vineyards in Bordeaux are also jumping on the sustainability wagon. More extreme weather events caused by climate change, such as frequent cold winters and extreme summer heat, are shortening growing seasons and increasing fungal diseases and vine mortality rates.
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| Rondo |
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| Solaris |
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| Rondo |
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| Rondo |
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| Rondo |
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| Chardonnay flower buds are forming |
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| Chardonnay |
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| Pinot Noir |
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| Baby Rondo |
Flower buds have appeared on the Rondo and Solaris vines. Nothing on the Chardonnay or Pinot Noir yet. The vines appear to be quite prolific this year, which would be very cool. We've been asked to do a talk for the Westport Gardening Club in September, so it would be lovely to have the members visit afterwards to see the grapes ripening. Let's hope for a good summer.
