The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has raised its probability of a Super El Niño forming by November 2026 to 100 per cent. In March, that number was 22 per cent. By late April, it was 80. Now it is certain.
A massive Kelvin wave, a pulse of anomalously warm water that has been building in the western Pacific, is now pushing eastward toward the surface. Subsurface temperatures in the top 300 metres of the tropical Pacific are already tracking warmer than the equivalent development stage of both the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super events. Central Pacific temperatures are projected to exceed 3°C above average by November, a level of oceanic heat not recorded since 1877.
What makes this worse is the baseline. Every previous Super El Niño formed on a cooler planet. This one is starting from a world already 1.2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Any additional Pacific heat stacks on top. NOAA now gives an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July, strengthening through autumn, and persisting through winter 2026-27.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has warned that the El Niño is emerging even faster than expected in the Pacific Ocean, and odds are increasing that it could become historically strong — a rare “Super” El Niño — by autumn or winter.
The consequences span droughts, collapsed monsoons, amplified wildfire seasons and a likely breach of the 1.5°C warming guardrail. It may also mean a harsher winter for the British Isles. In 1877, some 50 million people died.
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