Met Éireann released the first climate projections of the TRANSLATE initiative at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2023 (ECCA), held in Dublin last week.
The TRANSLATE dataset confirms that Ireland is likely to experience a decrease in the frequency of cold winter nights and up to a 10-fold increase in the frequency of warm (> 15°C) summer nights, alongside an increasing number of heatwaves, by the end of the century. In terms of precipitation, summers are projected to be drier and winters to be wetter, with precipitation increasing annually overall. Temperatures are projected to increase across all greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
Current estimates from the IPCC AR6 report, place the past decade as 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels, with the next 20 years expected to reach or exceed the 2°C threshold.
A tool to predict how your county will be affected was developed. It looks like Mayo will be relatively fortunate.
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