Monday 20 November 2023

Global temps exceed 2C above pre-industrial era


ERA5 data from @CopernicusECMWF indicates that 17 November was the first day that the global temperature exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels, reaching 2.07°C above the 1850-1900 average and the provisional ERA5 value for 18 November is 2.06°C.

A scorching heat wave hit Brazil this week. A 23-year-old woman died at Taylor Swift's Eras concert in Rio, causing Taylor to postpone her concerts. And it's not even summer there yet. 

The heat index — a combination of temperature and humidity — hit 58.5 degrees Celsius (137 Fahrenheit) Tuesday morning in Rio, the highest index ever recorded there. Actual temperatures dropped slightly on Wednesday, but were forecast to rise again to 40 degrees Celsius (104 F) on Thursday.

Temperatures across South America are affected by the El NiƱo, a periodic naturally occurring event that warms surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific region. But this year, ocean temperature rose extremely quickly – in a couple of months -- indicating that climate change impacts are accelerating. 

Heat waves are increasing in frequency -- this one is Brazil's eighth this year -- and there is for the first time an area of NE Bahia state that has the characteristics of a desert. 

This is not normal. But perhaps it's the most normal we will see in our lifetimes. 

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